What do Mexico need to reach the World Cup Round of 16?

Mexico were virtually qualified to the Round of 16 of the 2018 World Cup before a very late Toni Kroos free-kick forced a nail-biting finale against Sweden on Wednesday. While Mexico remain atop Group F, El Tri run the real danger of suffering a premature elimination with defeat to Sweden. So what do Mexico need to qualify to the Round of 16 for the seventh straight World Cup?

For starters, the easiest scenario is a win or draw. It is as simple as that. Mexico win or draw against Sweden and they are through.

Where things get a little complicated, however, is if Mexico lose. If Germany beat South Korea, then everything is settled through goal difference. In that case, the most likely scenario in which Mexico would be eliminated is if they lose by one goal and Germany win by two.

If Germany were to beat South Korea by just one goal, then the two teams qualified would be determine by who scored the most goals.

In the scenario that Mexico would go on to lose by two goals or more, El Tri’s only hope of reaching the Round of 16 is if South Korea beat or draw Germany.