FanPost

Clausura 2011, a fan's perspective

WELL!!! The regular season has come to and end and it's time for some predictions. But first I would like compare how I felt about the teams at the beginning of the tournament and how they ended up doing.

My predicions at the beginning of the season:

Top of the table for sure:

  • Cruz Azul, Santos, Monterrey, America, Chivas

Fighting for the liguilla in the final weeks:

  • Atlante, Estudiantes, Monarcas, San Luis, Jaguares, Tigres

Irregular/bad performances:

  • Pumas, Toluca, Pachuca, Puebla

Fighting for relegation:

  • Atlas, Queretaro, Necaza

What actually happened:

Top of the table:

  • Tigres, Pumas, Monarcas

Fighting for the liguilla in the final weeks:

  • Atlante, Cruz Azul, Chivas, America, Monterrey, Atlas

Irregular/bad performances:

  • Estudiantes, Toluca, Pachuca, Puebla, Santos, San Luis

Fighting for relegation:

  • Jaguares, Queretaro, Necaxa

Those where my predictions at the beginning of the season. Obviously the two biggest surprises for me where Santos and Pumas. After the firing of Romano, Santos went into and uncontrollable free fall that cost them the entire season. I was not counting on them needing a miracle in order to clinch an 8th seed of the liguilla, and well, the miracle didn't come. As for Pumas, I saw their semi final finish last season as a facade, surprising America in the last game of the season to sneak into the liguilla as the 8th seed. Without any reinforcements to start off the new season and a fairly new coach on the bench, I saw Pumas putting up a very irregular season, with their name and history carrying them further than what the players would be able to do. Now, with 35 pts in 17 games they finish the season in second place only by goal differential against Tigres. Should've beat America.

Teams that disappointed me where San Luis and Jaguares, squads that made it into the liguilla last season with low key, but consistent performances. I trusted that the continuation of their coaches would make them strong teams in the long run but unfortunately for Jaguares, a long string of injuries really buried their chances. I trust that both "El Profe" Cruz and Ignacio Ambriz will continue to lead the teams in the following season. Libertadores didn't help.

Speaking of leadership, I was really counting on Estudiantes and Atlante to be the surprises of the tournament, having Chelis and El Piojo give both teams a much needed organization on the bench. Atlante didn't disappoint me in the end, with an inspired Kiquin and with Bermudez screaming for a call to the national team, they did what was necessary to earn a 4th seed and secure home finish against Cruz Azul in the quarter finals. Estudiantes in the other hand, didn't finish off where I hoped they would land yet they earned a few key and surprising results that secured their place in the Mexican top flight for at least one more year. If the big suits let Chelis have a little more liberty with their wallets, Estudiantes could look forward to at least not having to worry about sinking back into the relegation percentage. Continuation is key.

Let's talk about "Los Rejios" now, Monterrey and Tigres. Ferreti could not have had a better season in my honest opinion. They surprisingly missed last seasons liguilla, after only needing a win in the last three games, they tanked to be left out of the big party. This time though, not only did they finish at the top of the table, but they did it with only one loss, and the best defense not only in the tournament but the third best defense in the history of Mexican football. One more thing to add about Tigres, keep an eye out for Mexican U20 international Alan Pulido who played less than 90 minutes as a sub and already scored three goals. As for Monterrey, don't think that the fact that they qualified last minute on their last game, that they won't be a force to be aware of in the play offs. Monterrey had a really bad start of the season followed by a bit of irregularity, but they are still in the eyes of many the most capable squad in Mexican football. Not only do they come into the liguilla with the weight of defending their championship, but they also come with the Concacaf Champions League trophy fresh in their spirit. Party in Nuevo Leon.

On the topic of championships, let's talk about Chivas, America, and Cruz Azul. Together with Pumas, these teams make up the big four in Mexico. These are the teams with the most championships and the biggest followings. It is true that these three in particular qualified in the last round, but once in the liguilla, any team that underestimates them is making a huge mistake. It has been quiet some time since the big 4 have all made it into the playoffs, and what is even more exiting for me is that there is a slight possibility that all four of them could make it to the semi finals(One can dream), since none of them seeded against each other. Chivas comes with the power of their youth. Marco Fabian and Erik Torres who's performances have solidified them as very important pieces in the string of victories that got them to this point of the tournament. America seems like they are running more on pride then play, but with season leading scorer, Angel Reyna, and a passionate coach filled with victory lust, America is going to risk their legs on the field. What remains to be seen is how much their participation in Copa America is going to strain their endurance by the time they receive Morelia on Thursday. Finally the eternal sub-champ, Cruz Azul. What can be said about this team really? They are up against Atlante, a team who they lost to in the beginning of the season. They come in with very weak finish to the season having only gotten one victory in their last six league games. On top of that add the big emotional impact of losing yet another chance to a tittle only two weeks back. Last season they came in full force into the liguilla as the number one seed and where taken out by eighth seeded Pumas. Cruz Azul is undoubtedly the most unpredictable of the bunch, Atlante will have to wait till game time on Wednesday to see which team decides to receive them in Estadio Azul. Hermosillo please come back.

Some would say that talking about the big four is an insult to what two particular teams have accomplished in the past ten years. Because if you sit an look back at the recent history of Mexican football, the truth is that there is only the big two, Toluca and Pachuca. Teams that unfortunately have not found their way in the past year, allowing other teams to pick up the slack. This season was a harsh one for both, with very irregular performances all tournament long and a decline in player performance. The only thing that is left to see about them is whether the coaches will continue to lead the teams. I doubt it.

Then there are the teams that began the season on life support; Atlas, Queretaro, and Necaxa. Atlas surprised us all with a 3-0-0 start to the season and an Edgar Pacheco who even got himself into Chepo's first call up as the coach of the senior Mexican squad. Ten weeks later they where 3-6-4, unpaid, and with their shirts on backwards, waiting for a man with a huge sack of money to show up and maybe save the team from extinction. Queretaro did what was necessary in order for them to remain in the Primera one more year, but let's be honest, Necaxa was the one that did them the honors. Having to wait till game six in order for them to achieve their first victory against big brother America was a sign that in the relegation battle there was already a team falling back. Goodbye Necaxa.

And as all the big leagues in the world begin to come to an end, the liguilla starts in Mexico. On Wednesday Chivas, and Cruz Azul host Tigres and Atlante respectively. Followed Thursday with Monterrey and America hosting Pumas and Monarcas. In my honest opinion I see no favorites for any of the match ups. With the Cruz Azul v Atlante game being the most unpredictable of the bunch. Once the sun comes up on Friday we'll be able to have a better picture of who will make it to the semis and we can possible begin to talk about championship favorites.

Oh yeah, predictions.

Chivas, America, Pumas, and Cruz Azul make it to the semis... No really! What? Predictions and dreams aren't the same thing? Maquina don't fail me now!

-Victor Diaz

PS: First time submitting anything like this to a blogging space, so please let me know what your guys think!