Revisiting Predictions For The Mexican Primera's 2011 Clausura: The Fringe Liguilla Contenders

Yesterday, I started the process of reviewing my predictions for the Mexican Primera's 2011 Clausura with the teams that I thought would be relegation battlers. I was spot on with a couple of predictions, but ultimately, my performance as a prognosticator was less than ideal. You can check out that post right here. Today, I'll be going over the teams that I thought would be on the fringes of Liguilla. You can check out the original post on those teams right here, and the entire predictions thread here.

Puebla: 20 points (out of Liguilla)

I'm pretty much spot on here. Puebla are sitting on 18 points going into the last day and they have no shot at qualifying for Liguilla. I also put them out of Liguilla by four points and goal differential, which will only be off by one or two points. This was one of my highlights

Prediction grade: A

Chivas Guadalajara: 24 points (8th place)

Chivas have 25 points going into the final day and they currently sit in fourth place, but eighth place is just two points behind. They have been slightly better than I expected, but all things considered, this pick was very good. I said that their defense would carry them, and that they would only have to score 22 goals to make Liguilla. Going into the final day, they're on 21 goals. Again, one of my highlights.

Prediction grade: A-

Jaguares de Chiapas: 22 points (out of Liguilla)

Ouch. I got the out of Liguilla part right, but I was extremely generous on the point total. If Jaguares lose on the last day of the season, they will have half of the points that I predicted them to get. Of course, I couldn't have possibly accounted for them losing Jackson Martinez, but I'm still not even in the general ballpark here. The only saving grace here is that I did not pick them to return to Liguilla.

Prediction grade: D

Monarcas Morelia: 19 points (out of Liguilla)

And here's where I look like a total horse's ass. After making two spot on picks and an understandable, but poor pick, I completely crapped the bet with the fourth pick in this set. Morelia have rebounded well from a bad 2010 Apertura to qualify for Liguilla comfortably. They're on 28 points with one game to go, and they appear like they're going to get the third seed in the playoffs. The only thing that saves me from the dreaded F is that their unimpressive +5 goal differential implies their not quite as good as their point total, but make no mistake about it: This pick was a stinker.

Prediction grade: D-

That's all for today. Check back tomorrow for a look back at the teams I thought were more solid Liguilla contenders.