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Revisiting Predictions For The Mexican Primera's 2011 Clausura: Relegation Battlers


Prior to the Mexican Primera's 2011 Clausura, I made predictions about the season for every single team in the tournament. This week, as the final week of the regular season approaches, I thought it would be appropriate to go through my predictions and give myself a grade. Today, we start with the relegation battlers.

A few things stick out here. First of all, I didn't even have Jaguares de Chiapas in this post, which is already an epic fail. Second, I thought Necaxa would actually be a Liguilla contender. Oops. Let's go through these one by one, dissecting my failures as an analyst. If you want to read the original post, the relegation battlers post is here, while the entire preview thread is here.

Necaxa: 23 points

This is not a good start. Based on their offseason signings, I thought that Necaxa were going to be a fringe Liguilla team. This proved to be not the case at all, as they were resigned to their fate pretty quickly. Their awful start led to Daniel Brailovsky's firing, and while their form improved temporarily, they ultimately failed to fight off relegation. Only their fairly respectable -5 goal differential saves me from looking like a total clown here.

Prediction grade: D

Queretaro: 19 points

They're on 16 going into the final day, so even if they lose, I think I did a pretty good job here. They didn't do much to improve their team in the winter, and as a result, they're in the exact same place as they were after the Apertura. Because they're looking a tiny bit worse, I don't get an A. Darn.

Prediction grade: A-

Atlas: 20 points

Aww, Atlas are on 23 points going into the last day of the season. So close! I was tempted to predict a better finish for them in the pre-season, such is my love for their goalkeeper Miguel Pinto, but I was scared off predicting too large of a jump. Maybe I should have stuck to my instincts.

Prediction grade: B

Atlante: 15 points

Haha, I totally failed on this one. Atlante didn't appear to improve a lot in the offseason, but despite that, they're sitting on 24 points going into the final day of the season. Kikin Fonseca has risen from the dead, Christian Bermudez is having far and away his best season ever, and a paper-thin defense has not only been competent, but good. The only reason I avoid an F here is because their defensive performances and Bermudez will regress to the mean in the 2011 Apertura, and you all know it.

Prediction grade: D

Estudiantes Tecos: 12 points

Tecos aren't very good at all, but this still isn't a good prediction. They're on 17 points headed into the final day of the season. However, they do have a -11 goal differential, suggesting that they might be just a tiny bit lucky. They do have the worst defense in the league, after all. They're in for a fight next year, but this better than expected point total means they might be able to keep up their impressive streak of avoiding relegation

Prediction grade: C-

Relegation Coefficients After 2011 Clausura

Necaxa: 1.147

Queretaro: 1.132

Atlas: 1.157

Atlante: 1.118

Estudiantes Tecos: 1.137

Relegated: Atlante

Oh man, I was really drinking the Atlante Haterade, wasn't I? Not only did i think they would get relegated, I didn't even think Necaxa would be second worst. Additionally, I didn't even have Jaguares in the relegation battlers group. All in all, I wasn't even in the ballpark on this one.

Prediction grade: F

Tomorrow, we'll look at the teams I thought were on the very fringes of being Liguilla contenders. Predictably, I was spot on in some cases and completely full of it in others.